Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy by Henry Kissinger

领导力。亨利-基辛格著《世界战略六项研究

这位美国老政治家以其丰富的经验介绍了六位世界领导人--并剖析了使他们有效的原因。

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 今天的新闻议程主要是讨论弗拉基米尔-普京的战争和沃洛迪米尔-泽伦斯基的抵抗，以及乔-拜登是否会保持西方联盟的团结，或者习近平是否会向俄罗斯施加压力以实现和平。

个人在塑造事件的过程中重要吗？亨利-基辛格认为是的，在他的新书中，他利用案例研究和自己的经验来论证，领导人个人和他或她的国策有时可以决定历史。当然，如果他们身边有最好的顾问，那就更好了。

尽管前总统德怀特-艾森豪威尔反对作者被任命为尼克松总统的国家安全顾问，理由是学者不适合做高层决策，但基辛格还是从哈佛大学胜利地完成了过渡。他获得了有史以来坐在椭圆形办公室的最不安全和最多疑的人的信任，也证明了他是官僚政治的高手，巧妙地避开了国务院和国务卿威廉-罗杰斯。

尽管现年99岁的基辛格自1977年以来没有担任过职务，但他几乎为尼克松以来的每一位美国总统提供过建议。他的记录和观点在舆论上有很大分歧，但他很少被忽视。

基辛格认识到美国的力量及其提供秩序和平衡的能力--但他对美国的不一致性感到绝望

在《领导力》中，他勾勒出六个人物的生活和时代，所有这些人他都认识，从他只见过几次面的康拉德-阿登纳到尼克松，在总统因水门事件辞职之前，他与尼克松每天都有联系。基辛格似乎认为新加坡的李光耀最有亲和力。他钦佩李光耀的成就，他把一个民族混杂的贫穷小岛变成了一个主要的经济和金融中心。他欣赏李光耀的聪明才智，例如，在20世纪60年代，李光耀通过轻描淡写地将以色列专家称为 "墨西哥人"，避免了对以色列军事援助的争议。

阿登纳的成就是把一个民主的西德变成了一个强大的欧洲的支柱和北约的重要伙伴。戴高乐 "冷酷无情、精打细算"--而且很有效--在第二次世界大战失败后将法国恢复为一个强国。基辛格在撒切尔夫人身上看到了同样的品质，她决心改造英国社会，并在1982年拒绝接受阿根廷对福克兰群岛的侵占。埃及的安瓦尔-萨达特也在名单上，因为他做出了勇敢的决定，与他的阿拉伯盟友决裂，与以色列媾和。

该书强调了基辛格本人的成就，从美国从越南脱身，到对中国的开放和穿梭外交，这些成就一度给中东带来了和平的希望。

然而，在大多数情况下，他选择不回答关于他太愿意为国家的原因而牺牲原则和人民的指控。他提到美国在1971年拒绝谴责巴基斯坦军事独裁政权镇压当时的东巴基斯坦独立运动的残暴企图。但他说，任何措施都只是传达了美国的反对意见而已。他补充说，"它们会"，"也会削弱美国的影响力，并威胁到刚刚开始的对华开放--巴基斯坦是我们的主要中介。"

在基辛格看来，好的领导人对过去有深刻的认识，并有能力想象可能的未来。基辛格说，有些领导人是预言家，他们 "不是从可能的角度，而是从必须的角度 "来看待现在。另一种类型，即政治家，管理变革，但在维护社会核心的旧有意义上是保守派。由于基辛格将罗伯斯庇尔和列宁归入前者阵营，将梅特涅和富兰克林-德拉诺-罗斯福归入后者，因此不难看出他的同情心所在。

谈到他自己的国家和它在世界上的作用，基辛格承认它的力量和它提供秩序和平衡的能力--这两点他都很看重--但他对它的不一致性感到绝望。他还不信任他所认为的美国 "特立独行 "的信念，即普遍的和平是可以实现的，他赞同尼克松的观点，即和平是 "大国之间脆弱和不稳定的平衡状态。.."

建议

亨利-基辛格

亨利-基辛格在2022年5月的华盛顿FT周末节上发表讲话--实录

他以悲观的口吻结束。目前还不清楚良好和有效的领导力从何而来。民主精英们似乎脱离了他们自己的社会，不愿意为世界的问题承担责任。他警告说，全球秩序正在被 "整个地区的解体 "和 "大国之间不断加剧的对立以及相互冲突的合法性主张 "所撼动。老年政治家是一个被过度使用的术语，但基辛格是真正的文章，值得倾听--即使你选择不同意他的观点。

领导力。亨利-基辛格的《世界战略六项研究》，艾伦-莱恩25英镑/企鹅出版社36美元，528页

玛格丽特-麦克米伦是牛津大学国际历史的名誉教授。

Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy by Henry Kissinger

The US elder statesman draws on his vast experience to profile six world leaders — and dissect what made them effective

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 Today’s news agenda is dominated by discussions about Vladimir Putin’s war and Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s resistance, and the question of whether Joe Biden will keep the western alliance together or Xi Jinping will put pressure on Russia to make peace.

Do individuals matter in shaping the course of events? Henry Kissinger thinks they do, and in his latest book he draws on case studies and his own experience to argue that the individual leader, and his or her statecraft, can sometimes determine history. Of course, it helps if they are surrounded by the best advisers.

Although the ex-president Dwight Eisenhower opposed the author’s appointment as President Nixon’s national security adviser, on the grounds that academics were not fit for high-level decision-making, Kissinger made the transition from Harvard triumphantly. He gained the trust of one of the most insecure and suspicious men ever to sit in the Oval Office and also proved a master of bureaucratic politics, deftly side-lining the State Department and secretary of state William Rogers.

Although Kissinger, now aged 99, has not held office since 1977, he has advised virtually every US president since Nixon. His record and views divide opinion deeply but he is rarely ignored.

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 Kissinger recognises the power of the US and its capacity to provide order and balance — but he despairs of its inconsistency

In Leadership, he sketches out the life and times of six figures, all of whom he knew personally, from Konrad Adenauer, whom he met on only a few occasions, to Nixon, with whom he was in daily contact before the president resigned over Watergate. Kissinger seems to have found Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore the most congenial. He admires Lee’s achievement in turning a poor little island with a volatile mix of ethnicities into a major economic and financial centre. He appreciates his adroitness as when, for example, Lee avoided controversy over military aid from Israel in the 1960s by blithely describing the Israeli experts as “Mexicans”.

Adenauer’s achievement was to turn a democratic West Germany into the pillar of a strong Europe and a valued partner in Nato. Charles de Gaulle was “ruthless and calculating” — and effective — restoring France as a power after its defeat in the second world war. Kissinger sees the same qualities in Margaret Thatcher, in her determination to transform British society and in her refusal to accept Argentina’s seizure of the Falkland Islands in 1982. Anwar Sadat of Egypt is on the list because he took the brave decision to break with his Arab allies and make peace with Israel.

The book highlights Kissinger’s own achievements, from the extrication of the US from Vietnam, to the opening to China and the shuttle diplomacy that brought, for a time, the promise of peace to the Middle East.

Yet for the most part, he chooses not to answer the charges that he was too willing to sacrifice principles and people for reasons of state. He refers to America’s refusal in 1971 to condemn the brutal attempts by Pakistan’s military dictatorship to suppress the independence movement in what was then East Pakistan. But he says any measures would have done little more than communicate American disapproval. “They would”, he adds, “also diminish American leverage and threaten the nascent opening to China — for which Pakistan was our principal intermediary.”

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 For Kissinger, good leaders have a deep appreciation of the past and an ability to imagine possible futures. Some leaders are prophets who, Kissinger says, see the present “less from the perspective of the possible than from a vision of the imperative”. The other type, the statesmen, manage change yet are conservatives in the older sense of preserving what is the core of their society. Since Kissinger puts Robespierre and Lenin in the former camp and Metternich and Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the latter, it is not hard to see where his sympathies lie.

When it comes to his own country and its role in the world, Kissinger recognises its power and its capacity to provide order and balance — both of which he ranks highly — but he despairs of its inconsistency. He also mistrusts what he sees as an American “idiosyncratic” faith that universal peace can be achieved, and shares the view, which he ascribes to Nixon, that peace is “a state of fragile and fluid equilibrium among the great powers . . . ”

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He ends on a pessimistic note. It is not clear where good and effective leadership is to come from. Democratic elites appear detached from their own societies and unwilling to take responsibility for the world’s problems. The global order, he warns, is being shaken by the “unravelling of entire regions” and “the intensifying antagonism of great powers with conflicting claims of legitimacy”. Elder statesman is an overused term but Kissinger is the genuine article, and worth listening to — even if you choose to disagree with him.

Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy by Henry Kissinger, Allen Lane £25/Penguin Press $36, 528 pages

Margaret MacMillan is professor emeritus of international history at the University of Oxford