烏克蘭俄羅斯戰爭更新 - 道格拉斯麥克格雷格上校

 

https://youtu.be/Fa7puJrsJC0

[音乐]      [Music]

大家早上好，安德鲁法官    good morning everyone judge andrew

纳波利塔诺为自由审判而来        napolitano here for judging freedom

今天是5月24日星期二      today is tuesday may 24

2022年，在美国东海岸，现在大约是11点。 2022 it's about 11 o'clock in the

在美国东海岸的早上    morning here in the east coast of the

美国东海岸    united states

我的客人是一个我非常敬佩的人        my uh guest is a man i admire a great

道格拉斯-麦克格瑞格上校   deal colonel douglas mcgregor

退役的美国陆军和        retired united states army and

在特朗普政府期间，五角大楼的        of the pentagon during the uh trump

麦格雷戈上校，我很荣幸    administration colonel mcgregor it's a

很高兴欢迎回到自由评判的舞台        pleasure welcome back to judging freedom

谢谢法官，我们有很多事情要谈。    thanks judge so there's a lot for us to

我们有很多东西要谈，而你在你的文章中明确了很多    talk about and you crystallized a great

你在你的文章中写了很多东西    deal of it in your article

你在你昨天的文章中写了很多，叫做30年没有战略      yesterday called 30 years with no

导致我们在乌克兰的战争    strategy brought us to war in ukraine

告诉我们你写了什么，先生        tell us what you wrote sir

好吧，它真的不是那么多，因为        well it's really it's not so much as

并不是没有战略 因为我认为      there's no strategy because i think

因为我认为人们会争论说，是的，我们有一个        people will argue that yes we have had a

是的，我们有一个战略，让我们陷入了很多的麻烦        strategy that's gotten us into a lot of

麻烦        trouble

而这个战略就是要成为        and the strategy is to essentially be

成为不可缺少的国家，去    the indispensable nation and go

遍地都是，让我们参与到    everywhere all the time to involve

牵扯到那些坦率地说与我们无关的事务中去    ourselves in matters that frankly are

与我们无关的事情        not relevant to us

我想这是头号问题        and i think that's the number one

第二个问题是，现在在乌克兰    problem the second part is that now in

第二部分是，现在在乌克兰，很明显，乌克兰人    ukraine it's pretty clear that the

乌克兰人正在被压制    ukrainians are being crushed

我从来没有想过有什么不同        i never thought anything differently

从一开始就是这样        from the very beginning

但我们人为地维持了这场冲突    but we have artificially sustained this

我们怂恿乌克兰人大量死亡        conflict we we've urged the ukrainians

我们敦促乌克兰人大量死亡 我们告诉他们的政府  to die in great numbers we've told their

我们告诉他们的政府，我们将支持他们    government that we will back them

最终我们给他们提供了大量的    and ultimately we've sent them enormous

最终我们给他们提供了巨大的援助，我们阻止他们        assistance and we've discouraged them

阻止他们与俄罗斯人进行谈判    from negotiating with the russians

所以现在他们面临的是完全的    so now they're faced with total

在乌克兰东部的大决战        armageddon in eastern ukraine

现在又有人说要把乌克兰西部变成    now there are talks about turning

西乌克兰变成了 "引号"。   western ukraine into quote-unquote

乌克兰斯坦    ukrainistan

来尝试和        to try and

试图建立一个无休止的战争，将继续和    build an endless war that will go on and

我认为这不会发生。    quote-unquote bleed russia which i see

坦率地说，我不认为欧洲人会忍受这一切。    not happening frankly i don't think the

我不认为欧洲人会忍受它，好吗？    europeans will put up with it all right

让我打断你，你的意思是什么？        let me stop you what do you mean by

乌克兰    ukrainistan

在五角大楼和美国政府中正在酝酿的想法是    well the idea that's being hatched over

五角大楼和白宫都在酝酿这个想法    in the pentagon and in the white house

我们将把乌克兰西部变成某个版本的阿富汗    is well we'll just turn western ukraine

把乌克兰西部变成阿富汗的某个版本        into some version of afghanistan for the

俄国人    russians

这样他们就会陷入这种        so that they they'll end up in this

无休止的游击战    endless guerrilla war

那位法官的问题是        well the problem with that judge is that

西乌克兰不是阿富汗，它是        western ukraine is not afghanistan it's

是相对开阔的起伏地形        relatively open rolling terrain there

没有山，没有洞穴，也没有        are no mountains there are no caves or

没有可以藏身的地方    no places to hide

俄国人可以用导弹扫荡整个地区        and the russians can sweep that entire

用导弹射击    area with missile fire

火箭弹，基本上可以摧毁    rocket fire and essentially devastate

在帝王河以西移动的任何人        anybody moving west of the emperor river

所以这不是一个实用的解决方案        as they see fit so it's not a practical

解决办法        solution

因此，所以    so so the the

国务院的全球主义者    the globalists in the state department

和他们在西欧的同事    and their colleagues in

西欧认为        western europe somehow think

通过北约和美国武装乌克兰人    that by nato and america arming the

乌克兰人就像你说的那样，要战斗到        ukrainians as you have said to fight to

最后一个活着的乌克兰人    the last living ukrainian

会    will

贬低俄罗斯或削弱普京的地位    degrade russia or diminish putin

是的，这就是你，你把它总结出来了        yeah that's you you've summed it up

很好，但没有证据表明        nicely and there's no evidence that

这将会起作用        that's going to work

就像没有证据表明有什么    just as there's no evidence for some

就像没有证据表明俄罗斯内部会发生政变        sort of coup building

没有证据表明俄罗斯内部会发生某种政变来推翻普京。        inside russia to remove vladimir putin

普京现在比以前更受欢迎    putin is more popular now than he has

更受欢迎        ever been

任何试图推翻他的人    anybody who attempted to remove him

将会是在俄罗斯的自杀行为        would be committing suicide in russia

民众百分之百支持他    the population is 100 percent with him i

我想官方的民意调查大约是85%。    think the official polls are about 85

但你不会找到        plus percent but you're not going to

但你不可能在那里找到不支持他的人        find anybody over there that doesn't

认为现在是保卫俄罗斯的时候了        think that it's time to defend russia

请记住，从一开始，所有这些    and remember from the very beginning all

这一切都被认为是为了保卫俄罗斯    of this was viewed as defending russia

消除东部地区的威胁    eliminating the threat in eastern

对他们来说，这又一次类似于    ukraine for them it's similar once again

这与古巴的导弹危机再次相似    to the cuban missile crisis

我们不会让乌克兰东部成为攻击的平台    we're not going to allow eastern ukraine

我们不会让乌克兰东部成为一个攻击平台的    to be a platform for attack

攻击俄罗斯    against russia how

多么危险啊    how dangerous is uh

美国的欢迎会        the american uh welcoming reception

欢迎芬兰和瑞典加入北约    for finland and sweden into nato

我不认为这很危险        you know i don't think it's dangerous

对我们来说，我认为问题是双重的    for us i think the problem is twofold

首先，即使芬兰总统    first of all even the finnish president

当他宣布他要这样做的时候        when he announced he was doing this and

被直接问及俄罗斯的攻击时        was asked directly about a russian

他说，不，我没有看到任何关于俄罗斯袭击的证据        attack he said no i don't see any

他说，我没有看到任何证据证明俄罗斯对芬兰的攻击    evidence for a russian attack on finland

他说，不，这不是我们的真正原因    he said no that's not really why we're

我们这样做是因为        doing this we're doing this because

引述不详        quote unquote

俄罗斯袭击了一个主权国家        russia attacked a sovereign nation that

这是他的论点，他知道，而且    that was his argument well he knows and

他知道，我相信欧洲的其他人也都知道    i'm sure like everybody else in europe

他知道，我相信像欧洲其他国家的人一样，我们去找俄罗斯人进入    knows that we go to the russians into

这场战争        this war

我们试图利用乌克兰作为一个    and we tried to use ukraine as an

我们试图利用乌克兰作为一个工具，我们可以击败        instrument with which we could beat

我们试图利用乌克兰作为工具，我们可以击败俄罗斯的头    russia over the head

但他这样做了，表面上看一定有        but he's done that ostensibly there must

对芬兰有一些我们不知道的好处        be some benefits to finland that we're

我们不知道的金钱或其他方面的好处        not aware of monetary or otherwise to

诱使他这样做        entice him to do this

当然，瑞典是另一回事，你知道吗？        sweden's another matter of course you

你知道瑞典人的有趣之处在于    know the funny thing about the swedes is

在华盛顿的大使    the ambassador here in washington

被问到了这个问题 你知道吗？  was asked about it you know what about

瑞典加入北约有什么好处？        sweden's joining uh you know nato what

对瑞典有什么好处？    are the benefits to sweden she said well

你知道我们可以减少我们的投资在    you know we can reduce our investment in

我们的国防开支约为国民生产总值的4     defense we're spending about four

国民生产总值的百分之四，如果我们        percent of gross national product if we

如果我们加入北约，我们可以降低到2%。      join nato we can go down to two percent

所以换句话说，我们可以成为美国的一个        so in other words we can become a

我们可以成为美国的军事依赖国        military dependency of the united states

就像非洲大陆的其他国家一样    like everybody else on the continent

这不是很好吗，这正是        isn't that great that's exactly what

唐纳德-特朗普警告过的       donald trump warned against

他说他会努力消除这种情况        and said he would try to undo of course

他没有成功，但他肯定        he didn't succeed but he certainly

试图        tried

我们为其他人支付国防费用        we paying everybody else's defense bills

看看我们在乌克兰支付的账单吧        well look at the bills we're paying in

乌克兰530亿美元，到时候        ukraine 53 billion dollars by the time

所有的设备都被释放了        all that equipment uh is uh released

那是抵押贷款        that's mortgage

国防部是俄罗斯国防预算的一部分    defense department that's one of the

这是俄罗斯的国防预算之一，它超过了    defense budget for russia and it's more

比乌克兰的全部预算还要多        than the entire budget for ukraine

没错 我是说乌克兰人  that's exactly right i mean ukrainians

我是说乌克兰人不可能吸收这些        can't possibly absorb that

那么问题来了 特别是在这个时候      so the question is especially at this

特别是在这个时候，你有一些人        point in time you have a few people

训练出来的人却寥寥无几 所谓的乌克兰正规军      trained but very few left the so-called

乌克兰的正规军几乎被        regular army of ukraine is almost

全军覆没了    annihilated

基本上没有人了。        there's practically no one left a report

今天早上有一份报告来了    came in this morning

几个旅要求泽林斯基    several brigades asking zielinski to

停止命令他们        stop ordering them

让他们做他们不可能做的事        to do things they can't possibly do

他们现在只剩下30-40人了 they're down to perhaps 30 40 strength

他们已经失去了成千上万的人    they've lost thousands of people they

他们说不要再命令我们去死了    said stop ordering us to to die

从字面上看，他们要求他停止    literally they've asked him stop

他们要求他不要再命令我们去死了 这到底是怎么回事？      ordering us to die so what is this going

我不认为这对乌克兰会有什么影响    to do i don't think it's going to do

我不认为这对乌克兰有什么好处 但我想知道  much for ukraine but i'd like to know

但我想知道这些钱是怎么来的    where the money goes

但我想知道美国国库的钱从哪里来    from the american treasury to pay for

所有的    all of

你知道吗？    this you know obviously how much longer

他们要去的    they're going to the

工业综合体，你说        industrial complexes you say

这有可能持续多久？    how much longer is this likely uh to go

继续下去        on

你告诉我们，还有很多人    you you told us and and a lot of people

听你说的        listening to you

俄罗斯的胜利是不可避免的        that the russian victory was inevitable

我们的朋友Scott Ritter说    our friend scott ritter has said

我们的朋友Phil Geraldi也说过同样的话   the same thing our friend phil geraldi

也说过同样的话    has said the same thing

声音是在旷野中哭泣，除了        voice is crying in the wilderness except

它现在看来是正确的 哦，是的  that it now appears to be correct oh yes

它只是比我想象的要长得多        it's just taken much longer than i think

我们大多数人都认为，但有一些        most of us thought but there were a

但有几件事情我们没有预料到    couple of things that we didn't

我认为任何    anticipate i think any

我认为任何一个正常的平衡的思想家在任何地方    normally balanced thinker anywhere in

世界上任何一个正常的平衡思考者都会在第一或第二周看到这个        the world would have looked at this

事件的第一或第二周，并    event in the first week or two and

预计美国总统        expected the president of the united

美国总统进行干预，并说我们必须有        states to intervene and say we must have

停火        a ceasefire

让我们进行谈判    let us negotiate

了解到如果我们不进行谈判        understanding that if we didn't

谈判，我们就有可能破坏乌克兰东部地区        negotiate we risked the destruction of

东乌克兰的破坏    eastern ukraine

现在已经发生了，我们现在有800万到1000万乌克兰难民  well that's happened we now have what 8

到1000万乌克兰难民，但  to 10 million ukrainian refugees but

但这并没有发生，这是第一个    that did not happen that was the first

我们没有试图阻止这个可怕的血腥冲突    surprise that we would not try to stop

这场可怕的血腥冲突    this terrible bloody conflict

第二，俄罗斯人告诉乌克兰东部的人民    secondly the russians told the people in

东乌克兰的人民，他们绝大多数都是        eastern ukraine who are overwhelmingly

俄罗斯人说，他们要来        russian that they were coming in

完全是为了消灭乌克兰的部队    exclusively to destroy ukrainian forces

之后，他们将离开        after which they would leave

东部地区的普通俄罗斯人认为    well the average russian in eastern

乌克兰的普通俄罗斯人得出结论，如果你不    ukraine concluded well if you're not

如果你们不留下并解放我们        coming to stay and liberate us

我们就不会帮助你，因为一旦你离开        we're not going to help you because once

因为一旦你们离开，乌克兰的秘密警察    you leave the ukrainian secret police

就会出现并射杀我们所有的人    will show up and shoot all of us in the

包括我们的家人    head including our families

所以他们站在一边，试图摆脱    so they stood aside and tried to get out

所以他们站在一旁，试图摆脱困境，而不是帮助和        of the way as opposed to helping and

协助，因为在大多数情况下        assisting for for the most part the

俄国人    russians

最后，我认为我们不相信    and then finally i think we did not

最后我认为我们不相信乌克兰人会    believe that the ukrainians would move

进入城市的中心并        into the centers of cities and

我们认为他们会在城市的中心地带    essentially hunker down we thought they

我们认为他们会尝试与敌人周旋        would actually try to maneuver against

那是不可能的，对吗？        the enemy that never happened right and

所以你让他们在这些大城市        so you had them in these big cities and

他们是孤立的，在很大程度上    they're they're isolated and largely

因此，他们被孤立了，在战略上没有任何意义        strategically irrelevant as a result

所以有两个传言    so there are two rumors

围绕着    going around

所以有两个传言在四处流传，他们甚至已经走到了        dc and they've even made their way up

到这里的腹地，在        here into the hinterlands in the

我所居住的东北地区    northeast where i live

一个是，可能会有        and one is that there might be

总统可能会命令要么    the president might order either

直接或间接地动员        directly or indirectly a mobilization

某种国民警卫队或什么的    of some sort national guard or something

今年夏天        this summer

另一个是，他        and the other is that he

可能        might

驻扎        station

某种表面上的特种部队        special forces of some sort ostensibly

作为        as

呃 大使馆的警卫  uh embassy guards

呃，在基辅    uh in in kiev

你能对这些发表评论吗？    can can you comment on either of those

你听说过这些传言吗？        have you heard these rumors

是的，我听说了。        yes i have uh

我们不知道第一种情况，但        we don't know about the first one but

但有很多关于预备役的讨论        there is a lot of talk about reserve

不仅仅是警卫队    mobilization that's not just the guard

但陆军预备役和潜在的        but the army reserves and potentially

空军预备队    air force reserves

可能会在7月被动员起来    that might be mobilized in july in

与乌克兰发生的事情有关    connection with what's happening in

乌克兰    ukraine

也许这也是美国政府和英国政府        perhaps this is a part of the

政府及其下属媒体不愿意承认    unwillingness of the administration and

其下属的媒体不愿意承认    its subordinate media to admit that the

东乌克兰的战争已经失败    war in eastern ukraine is lost

并且仍然不愿意支持任何形式的谈判解决方案        and still unwilling to back any sort of

谈判解决，所以我们要动员起来        negotiated settlement so we'll mobilize

我不知道 我认为这是一个非常愚蠢的想法      i don't know i think it's a very dumb

我认为这是一个非常愚蠢的想法，我不认为它会去下来        idea i don't think it's going to go down

我认为这不会得到美国人民的支持，也许        well with the american people perhaps

我错了，但我不认为会这样，所以    i'm wrong but i don't think it will so

这是第一个问题，第二个问题    that's the first one the second one

你知道特种作战部队    you know special operations forces from

你知道特种作战部队时常出现在大使馆的工作人员中，但    time to time are on embassy staffs but

但我们从未有机会公开宣布        we've never had an occasion to announce

公开宣布我们要用特种作战部队来保卫一个    publicly that we're going to guard an

用特种作战部队保卫大使馆        embassy with special operations forces

这是史无前例的，我认为这是一件非常愚蠢的事。        that's unprecedented i think it's a very

我认为这是一件非常愚蠢的事情，公开说        stupid thing to say publicly and special

特种作战部队不是保镖，不是    operations forces are not bodyguards no

他们是最        they're the most

厉害的    terrific

有效的致命的        effective lethal

攻击性    offensive

我说的对吗？ 我认为  units we have am i right well i think

是的，但他们也是非常狭隘的    they are but they're also very narrowly

他们的任务是去    defined the missions they get are to go

进去        in

找到一个或多个目标，摧毁它们        find a target or targets destroy them

然后再离开    and then get out

所以他们并不是真的被训练成    so they're not really trained as

所以他们也不是真的被训练成安保人员    security guards either

那么问题来了，你为什么要派他们    so the question is why would you send

我想这是对海军陆战队的一种补充    them in and i assume that this is an

在海军陆战队的基础上        addition to the marines

已经驻扎在大使馆的海军陆战队        that are already stationed at the

大使馆    embassy

所以，呃，这是一个非常奇怪的说法，以        so uh it this is a very odd statement to

你在五角大楼的联系人是谁？    make do your um contacts at the pentagon

表示，显然不要告诉我        indicate and obviously don't tell me

你不能告诉我什么        what you can't tell me

呃    uh

指出是否有一个B计划        indicate whether or not there's a plan b

或C或D，无论你如何称呼它    or c or d whatever you want to call it

这将涉及部署        which would involve the deployment of

美国军队在当地    american troops on the ground

在乌克兰的实地部署    in ukraine

第一部分的答案是否定的    well the first part of the answer is no

我只是不知道 呃 我认为    i i just don't know uh i would assume

有人已经做了一些计划        that someone's done some planning

某个地方        somewhere

但我希望所有的计划都是    but i i would expect that all of it is

通常是防御性的，换句话说，如果    normally defensive in other words if

你正在寻找在部署额外的    you're looking at deploying additional

军队的任何原因    troops for any reason

那就是为了保卫北约的东部地区        it would be to defend nato's eastern

而不是进攻性的    border as opposed to offensive

在乌克兰西部的行动    operations into western ukraine i

我认为这是不可能的    that that i think is unlikely

我认为这不太可能的原因是        the reason i think it's unlikely is

因为        because

因为我们没有足够的后勤基础设施    we don't have the logistical

基础设施或部队结构    infrastructure or the force structure in

我们没有后勤基础设施或部队结构来进行防御性行动    place to conduct defensive operations

在北约的边界以东进行防御行动 第二件事      east of nato's border the second thing

第二件事是    is that

第二，北约内部没有支持    there's no support for that inside the

我们忽视了北约联盟中的大多数人的要求。    nato alliance now we've ignored what

我们已经忽略了北约联盟中大多数人的要求    most people in the nato alliance want in

我想我们可以无视这一点    the past i suppose we could ignore that

在未来    in the future

当然，我相信你已经    and of course as i'm sure you've

我相信你也听说了，就像我一样        probably also heard as i have that

据说有两个波兰营的部队    supposedly two polish battalions

现在在    are now in

在乌克兰的某个地方，试图帮助        somewhere in ukraine trying to help the

根据基辅和华沙达成的某种协议，乌克兰人    ukrainians under some sort of agreement

基辅和华沙之间的协议，这些    between kiev and warsaw that these

这些士兵将成为乌克兰军队的一部分        soldiers would become part of the

乌克兰军队 哦，孩子，这是另一个  ukrainian army oh boy that's another

在我的判断中，这可能是另一场灾难，但        disaster potentially in my judgment but

呃，这告诉你乌克兰东部的局势有多绝望        uh this tells you how desperate the

但这告诉你乌克兰东部的局势是多么的绝望。        situation is in eastern ukraine and

这就是为什么人道主义的事情是要    that's why the humanitarian thing is to

这就是为什么人道主义的事情是干预，并说停止让我们有一个良好的        intervene and say stop let's have a good

谈判        negotiation

我们已经跟    we have spoken to

至少有一个人，他自称代表了许多其他美国平民    at least one and he purports to

代表其他许多美国平民        represent many others american civilian

前军事人员    ex-military civilian

在基辅的地面上    on the ground in kiev

在一个叫 "自由之子 "的组织中运行 running in a a group called sons of

自由国际组织，他说    liberty international which he says

帮助训练        helps train

乌克兰军队和乌克兰    ukrainian military and ukrainian

训练乌克兰军队和平民使用美国的设备    civilians in using american equipment

他们并没有冒着生命危险，因为        they weren't risking their lives because

他们相信这一点    they believe in this

是否有我们不知道的美国军队    are there american military that we

我们不知道的美国军队        don't know about

在乌克兰的任何地方都有美国军队 我不是说守卫的海军陆战队  on the ground anywhere in ukraine i'm

我不是说守卫海军陆战队    not talking about the marines guarding

的海军陆战队        the

大使馆    the embassy

可能有    there may be

我这样说的原因是        and the reason i say that is because

当特朗普总统在任时，我们        while president trump was in office we

我们发现，我们有部队在当地    discovered that we had forces in far

在叙利亚和非洲部分地区的地面上有更大的数量    larger numbers on the ground in places

诸如叙利亚和非洲部分地区的部队比        like syria and in parts of africa than

报道过的        had been reported

换句话说，国防部        in other words the department of defense

没有对我们说实话        had not been truthful with us

关于什么是真正在地面上    about what was really on the ground

这很可能是现在的情况，可以    that may well be the case now that could

这很可能是现在的情况，这很容易发生在拜登总统身上        just as easily happen to president biden

就像它发生在特朗普总统身上一样    as it did to president trump

你认为这种情况还要持续多久？        how much longer do you think this goes

进展        on

这场战争        the war

我认为，当我们走过这个夏天    i think as we move through the summer

并达到秋天的时候        and and reach the fall

我们会在这里出现危机        there we are going to have crises here

在国内    at home

这将是非常严重的，这些将        that will be very severe those will

涉及财务问题        involve financial matters

以及食品短缺，燃料    as well as food shortages fuel

价格        prices

我认为我们将看着我们的经济逐渐内爆    i i think we're going to watch our

经济逐渐内爆，一些    economy gradually implode a number of

潜在的泡沫将开始        potential bubbles are going to start

破灭        bursting

随着这种情况的发生，人们会越来越不关心    as that occurs there'll be less and less

对海外发生的事情越来越不感兴趣    interest in what's going on overseas

我不认为我们可以专注于    uh i just don't think we can focus on

在乌克兰发生的事情    what's happening in ukraine at the

牺牲这里将要发生的事情    expense of what's going to happen here

我可能是错的        inside the united states i could be

我可能是错的，但这是我的想法        wrong but that's what i think

对弗拉基米尔-普京来说，摧毁美国的诱惑力有多大？   how tempting is it for vladimir putin

破坏        to destroy the

巨大的现金    enormous cash

的巨额现金    of

美国储存在波兰的军事装备        u.s military equipment being stored in

波兰        poland

如果他这样做，他是否会把北约的军队带入    if he does that does he bring nato

他是否会把北约的军队带入其中，显然，如果他打击了        troops into this obviously if he struck

袭击波兰的目标    targets right now in poland

那就有可能导致与北约的战争    that would potentially bring on a war

与北约的战争，到目前为止，我们所看到的    with nato and thus far what we've seen

而到目前为止，我们所看到的俄罗斯人的做法是    from the russians is

非常有计划地努力避免这种情况        a very systematic effort to avoid that

不惜一切代价        at all costs

所以，我认为他将会非常重视    so no i think he's going to be very

所以我认为他将会非常专注于巩固在乌克兰东部所取得的成果    focused on consolidating what's being

我想我们会看到在乌克兰东部赢得的大部分成果。        won in eastern ukraine i think we're

我认为我们将看到大部分地区    going to see most of it

要么直接归属俄罗斯，要么        either next directly to russia or

或者宣布成立一个新的        perhaps declared as a new

俄罗斯的乌克兰共和国与莫斯科结盟。    russian ukrainian republic allied with

莫斯科一切皆有可能，但我认为        moscow anything is possible but i think

但我认为这是他要关注的地方    that's where he's going to focus

同时，他还向乌克兰提供大量的        in the meantime he is supplying huge

大量的谷物    quantities of grain

以及其他食品，当然还有    uh other foodstuffs as well as of course

贵金属    precious metals

和能源给中国，因为中国有        and energy to china because china has

因为中国现在有自己的问题，他们    its own problems right now and they're

他们非常担心潜在的粮食    very concerned about potential food

所以他的首要任务是    shortages so his number one priority

的头等大事，除了        other than

除了乌克兰之外，他的首要任务是帮助那些与他合作的中国人    ukraine is going to be to assist the

中国人在这场危机中一直与他站在一起    chinese who have stood with him

在这场危机中一直支持他的中国人    throughout this crisis

好吧，我本来想说谢谢你    all right i was going to say thank you

和和和然后的节目，但你是        and and and and then the show but you're

现在你在挑逗我了        now you're tantalizing me

总统两天前在日本说的是什么？        what the heck was the president talking

两天前在日本，当他被问及        about two days ago in japan when he was

在新闻发布会上被问及        asked at a press conference

美国军队是否会积极    would american military troops actively

保卫台湾        defend taiwan

如果中国政府 呃 试图        if the chinese government uh sought to

用军事手段来控制台湾，他        use military uh to control taiwan and he

他只回答了一个字：是        answered with one word yes

是的，我知道他在说什么，还是        yeah i know what he was talking about or

这是给习近平主席的一些信息    is this some message to president xi

当然，你知道，在他发表这个声明后不久        uh well of course you know that shortly

当然你知道在他发表声明后不久，我认为        after he made that statement i think

国防部长奥斯汀和我认为    secretary of defense austin and i think

国家安全顾问先生        the national security adviser mr

布莱恩 我不确定他是否是那个人      brian i'm not sure if he was the one

立即与Jake Sullivan交谈，Jake的      spoke immediately jake sullivan jake's

对不起    over right i'm sorry

呃，这很难区分    uh it's hard to tell the difference

老实说    frankly

呃，最终呃说，看这是一个        uh ultimately uh said look this was a a

错了，他说错话了，我们的政策没有改变。    mistake he misspoke there's no change in

我们的政策，因为我们的政策一直是        our policy because our policy has been

基本上不参与        to essentially stay out of

台湾和中国之间的事务        the affair between taiwan and china

只要不存在    provided there was no

你知道直接威胁    you know direct threat

坦白说，我可以告诉你，从我自己的经验来看        and frankly i can tell you from my own

与来自台湾的人的经验        experience with people from taiwan from

国防部在那里        the ministry of defense there over the

在过去的几年里    last several years off and on

他们不 他们不害怕中国的攻击  they don't they don't fear an attack by

中国        china

问题是，现在我们对中国的态度是如此    the problem is that now we have been so

我们对中国的态度是好战的        bellicose in our attitudes towards china

我认为总统的这个声明        that i think this statement by the

我认为总统的声明向中国发出了一个信息        president has sent a message to the

中国人    chinese

他们将不得不准备好    that they're going to have to be

他们必须准备好在海峡上对我们采取行动        prepared to act against us in the strait

台湾海峡的战争    of war strait of taiwan

所以        so

你知道，至少我在东北亚的联系人    you know at least my my contacts in

东北亚的联系人    northeast asia

与我们的盟友都告诉我这是        with our allies are telling me this was

一个可怕的声明，因为它    a terrible statement to make because it

证实了北京方面对我们的最坏担心    confirms the worst fears

因为它证实了北京对我们的恐惧        in beijing about us

所以他们开始越来越多地认为    so they begin to think more and more

除了最终与美国开战之外没有其他选择    there's no alternative to an eventual

与美国的战争，自然    war with the united states and naturally

这    this

促使俄罗斯和中国更加紧密地联系在一起        drives russia and china that much closer

更加紧密地联系在一起        together

他们认为自己是彼此的伙伴        and they see themselves as one another's

伙伴        partners

他们认为自己是彼此的伙伴，可以永远在美国的攻击下生存下去。    for for eternity to survive the

美国的攻击    onslaught of the united states

我不仅是 我不是这个人的  and i'm not only i'm not the man's

我不是他的精神分析师 我不明白为什么  psychoanalyst i i can't i understand why

你会这么说，但    you would say that but

但像他两天前发表的声明    will a statement like he made two days

但像他两天前发表的声明    ago

激发中国军队的活力 是的  animate the chinese military yes

毫无疑问，不仅仅是军队    without question not just the military

而是        but

北京的领导层        the leadership period in beijing

每个人都会看到这一点，并且    everyone is going to look at that and

说："哦，我的上帝，这些人我已经失去了理智。   say oh my god these people are i've lost

他们已经失去了理智，我们必须要做好准备    their minds we we've got to prepare for

最坏的情况    the worst

我们需要了解一些关于        we need to understand something about

台湾和中国很简单        taiwan and china very briefly

在过去的几次危机中    during the last several crises whenever

都会有任何形式的威胁        there's been the threat of any kind of

任何        any

区域内的冲突        conflict in the region

台湾的银行都倾向于    the banks in in taiwan have tended to

把他们的财富都储存在中国        store all their wealth in china

考虑一下这个问题        think about that

你觉得这是否听起来好像这些    does that sound to you as though these

是敌手和对手        are adversaries and opponents

我是说    i mean

从中国人的角度来看    from the standpoint of the chinese

台湾是    taiwan was

日本皇室的不沉的航空母舰        imperial japan's unsinkable aircraft

航母        carrier

那是他们的恐惧，换句话说，它可以        that's their fear in other words it can

成为入侵和摧毁中国的中转站    be the staging point for invasion and

毁灭中国的中转站        destruction of china

所以他们不希望有任何外国军队        therefore they don't want any foreign

军队进入台湾        forces in taiwan

就像普京不希望外国军队    just as putin did not want foreign

军队，特别是美国和北约在乌克兰东部    forces specifically u.s and nato in

就像普京不希望外国军队，特别是美国和北约在乌克兰东部，就像JFK不希望 eastern ukraine just as jfk didn't want

俄国军队在哈瓦那        russian forces in havana

正是如此，这也是我们早就知道的事情    exactly exactly and this is something

我们已经知道了很长时间    that we've known for a long time

这一点我们已经知道很久了，而且已经说得很清楚了    and it's been made very clear that as

只要美国不在台湾部署军队        long as the united states doesn't put

只要美国不把军队放在台湾，日本不把军队放在台湾    forces on taiwan the japanese don't put

只要美国不在台湾派兵，日本不在台湾派兵，就不可能发生什么        forces on taiwan there's nothing likely

那么最后一点是    to happen then here's the final point

有两个政党    there are two parties

在台湾    in taiwan

一个是亲日派，基于日本对台湾的长期控制    one is pro-japanese based on japan's

一个是亲日派，基于日本对该岛的长期控制，另一个    long control of the island and the other

是    is

亲北京    pro-beijing

现在亲日本的政党正在执政        right now the pro-japanese party is in

执政，但它只是以几票之差赢得了选举    power but it only won election by a few

但它在上次的选举中只赢了几票        votes the last time

这可能会发生变化，你可能最终        that could change and you could end up

亲北京的党就会出现了        with quote-unquote the pro-beijing party

台湾的亲北京党希望    the pro-beijing party in taiwan wants

统一        reunification

与大中国统一        with greater china

现在        now

在这种情况下，我们为什么要    under those circumstances why are we

试图在没有冲突的情况下制造冲突    trying to create a conflict when there

你有很大一部分人        really is none you have a huge segment

有很大一部分人认为    of the population that thinks

所以我们和中国统一，我们可以和中国做生意        so we reunify with china we can do

与中国做生意 人们不明白  business with china people don't

人们不明白，北京的目标和        understand that the goal in beijing and

在台湾的目标        the goal on taiwan

是一样的 他们都想生活在  are the same they both want to live in

像新加坡那样的地方    something like singapore

这就是中国人想要的，所有的人都是如此        that's what the chinese want all of them

他们并不特别关心政府的问题    they don't particularly care about the

政府，只要它不    government as long as it doesn't

干扰他们赚钱和发财的能力        interfere with their ability to make

赚钱和致富的能力        money and enrich themselves

他们的价值取向与我们不一样    their value orientation is not the same

和我们不一样        as ours

虽然我应该我应该插一句话        although i should i should interject it

这显然是华盛顿特区和沼泽地区大多数人的价值取向    that clearly is the value orientation in

华盛顿特区和沼泽地的大多数人都是这样的    washington dc and swamp right for most

美国人，我们不认为专门在这些方面        americans we don't think exclusively in

但他们是这样想的        those terms but they do

麦格雷戈上校 你对我们的价值是不可估量的  colonel mcgregor you are of inestimable

你对我们的价值是不可估量的。        value to us the emails are popping up

所有的地方    all over the place

我知道每个人都在看，深深地    and i know everybody watching deeply and

我知道每个人都对你的洞察力深为赞赏 我们  profoundly appreciates your insight we

我们希望你能很快再回来    hope you'll come back again soon sure

谢谢法官，法官先生    thank you judge pleasure sir judge

纳波利塔诺对自由的评判    napolitano for judging freedom

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