柯利達爵士与中国通

 柯利達爵士，GCMG（英語：Sir Percy Cradock，1923年10月26日－2010年1月22日），英國外交官及公務員，1978年至1983年出任英國駐華大使，是英方的「中國通」和主要參與草擬《中英聯合聲明》的英方人物。

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柯利達爵士离开唐宁街10号时受到了梅杰的告别，他说，"如果没有他的外交技巧，香港的情况必然会更糟。

在他们分手时，梅杰告诉柯利達爵士，如果他认为香港出了问题，应该让他知道。

到1992年底，彭定康公布了他的改革，并对北京进行了 "糟糕的 "访问，这让柯利達爵士非常震惊，他去见了总理，随后给梅杰写了一封六页的 "个人和机密 "信，阐述了他的担忧。

我们很容易把柯利達爵士讽刺为一个被遗弃的官员，向王室写了一份抗议的备忘录。

然而，从事件的发展来看，他的论点值得研究，因为他几乎准确地预测了将要发生的事情。

 

Cradock left 10 Downing Street with a valedictory from Major, who said that ‘without his skill in diplomacy Hong Kong would inevitably have fared worse.’ As they parted, Major told Cradock that if he thought Hong Kong was going wrong he should let him know. By late 1992, Patten had unveiled his reforms and made his ‘ill-starred’ visit to Beijing, leaving Cradock so appalled that he went to see the prime minister and subsequently wrote a six-page ‘personal and confidential’ letter to Major setting out his concern. It would be easy to caricature Cradock as a discarded mandarin writing a memorial of remonstrance to the throne. In the light of events, however, his arguments bear examination because he forecast almost exactly what was going to happen.

 

他警告首相，英国正走在一条 "旨在从中国方面产生最具建设性和敌对性的反应 "的道路上。

这导致了那种双方都不能轻易退让的危机，这是在1982年至1984年最紧张的时期所避免的。

柯利達爵士并不是说英国不希望香港有更多的民主，"但我们肯定希望民主能在1997年后继续存在，并且不会引起中国的反弹，从而在回归后建立一个更压抑的政权。

 

He warned the prime minister that Britain was on a course ‘calculated to produce the most unconstructive and hostile response from the Chinese side’. It had led to the kind of crisis in which neither side could easily back down, something avoided in the tensest periods of 1982 to 1984. Cradock was not suggesting that Britain did not want more democracy in Hong Kong, ‘but we surely want democracy that will survive beyond 1997 and that does not provoke a Chinese backlash and in consequence a more repressive regime after the handover.

 

'我并不质疑中国人的无理取闹和不可容忍。

他们当然是这样，他们从来都是如此。

‘I do not dispute that the Chinese are being unreasonable and intolerable. Of course they are; they have never been anything else.’

 

柯利達爵士没有试图争辩说安静的方法会奏效，但他指出，中国人'在那里，我们必须与他们合作'。

然后，他告诉总理他认为如果彭定康对中国的反对施加压力会发生什么："他们不会让步的。

他们对香港的民主有着深刻的怀疑，认为这是英国人试图将香港从大陆分离出来的一种手段，也是中国南方邻近省份的一个传染源。

 

Cradock did not try to argue that a quiet approach would have worked, but he pointed out that the Chinese ‘are there and we have to work with them’. Then he told the prime minister what he thought would happen if Patten pressed on against Chinese opposition: ‘They will not give way. They have a profound suspicion of democracy in Hong Kong as a British device for trying to detach the territory from the mainland and as a source of infection to the neighbouring provinces of southern China.’

 

中国领导人很乐意在1997年接管时有一个解散立法机构的借口；与此同时，他们会对本地政治家和社会施加压力，威胁那些与英国人合作的人，在重要问题上撤回自己的合作，最终 "肯定会有一个按照中国人的喜好安排的新立法机构。

这正是所发生的事情。

柯利達爵士挑出邓小平关于'一个新的开始'的话来说明他的观点，并补充说，中国人可能会寻求解散司法机构和其他机构。

 

Chinese leaders would be happy to have an excuse for dismantling the legislature when they took over in 1997; meanwhile they would pressurise local politicians and the community, threaten those who co-operated with the British, withdraw their own co-operation over important issues and ultimately ‘there will certainly be a new legislature arranged to the Chinese liking.’ This is precisely what took place. Cradock singled out Deng’s words about ‘a fresh start’ to make his point, adding that the Chinese might seek to dismantle the judiciary and other institutions.

 

在他最有预见性的一句话中，柯利達爵士预见到，允许中国人声称英国违反了《联合声明》和《基本法》，将使他们能够削弱自己对维护自由和权利的承诺中那些他们不喜欢的部分。

我怎么强调《联合声明》对香港的重要性都不为过：它是香港的一张锚；没有它，香港人就会落入中国人的手中，根本得不到任何保护。

他警告说，不要在英国寻求 "短期的赞美"，也不要指望香港的大多数人在知道代价后支持总督。

许多当地人将寻求与共产党通融，即使彭定康赢得100%的支持，也不会改变中国的想法。

事实上，民众对北京领导人认为是颠覆行为的支持程度越高，他们的反应就越强硬。

 

In perhaps his most prescient sentence, Cradock foresaw that allowing the Chinese to claim that Britain was in breach of the Joint Declaration and the Basic Law would allow them to weaken those parts of their own commitments to uphold freedoms and rights which they did not like: ‘I cannot emphasise too much the importance to Hong Kong of the Joint Declaration: it is the territory’s sheet anchor; without it Hong Kong people would be in Chinese hands with no protection at all.’ He warned against courting ‘short term praise’ in Britain or counting on the majority in Hong Kong to support the governor once the costs became known. Many local people would seek to make their accommodation with the Communist Party and even if Patten won 100 per cent support it would not change China’s mind: ‘Indeed, the greater the level of popular support for what the Peking leaders will see as an act of subversion, the tougher their reaction will be.’

 

同时，柯利達爵士警告首相，他必须预料到会有攻击，因为他对香港处理不当，丢掉了撒切尔政府的最大成就之一。

他悲观地表示，"来自香港的难民问题可能再次变得严重。

在他看来，选择是在短期内更多的民主，然后在1997年后进行镇压，还是在1997年之前减少民主，然后有更好的机会避免镇压制度。

在第一种情况下，他认为会出现 "高度的中英敌意"，中国政府会利用这种敌意来取消《联合声明》的部分内容。

他承认这是 "一种邪恶的选择"，但他说答案只有一个：采取第二种选择。

失去彭定康扩大的民主将是'痛苦的'，但为了'避免此后无限期的镇压制度'，这是值得付出的代价。

他敦促首相重新考虑，修改计划，并重新与中国人进行秘密会谈。

 

Meanwhile, Cradock warned the prime minister, he must expect attacks for mishandling Hong Kong and casting away one of the biggest achievements of the Thatcher government. With pessimistic foresight, he said, ‘the issue of refugees from Hong Kong could again become acute.’ The choice in his view was between more democracy in the short term followed by repression after 1997, and less democracy up to 1997 with a better chance of avoiding a repressive system afterwards. In the first case he thought there would be ‘a high degree of Sino-British hostility’ which Beijing would use to write off parts of the Joint Declaration. He admitted that it was ‘a choice of evils’, but he said there was only one answer: to take the second choice. Losing Patten’s expanded democracy would be ‘painful’ but was a worthwhile price to pay for ‘avoiding a repressive system of indefinite duration thereafter’. He urged the prime minister to think again, to modify the plan and to re-engage the Chinese in secret talks.

 

柯利達爵士的建议得到了考虑，但政策没有改变。

从那时起，他的语气变得尖锐起来。

他开始在媒体上攻击彭定康。

这是一场不平等的较量；正如他的一个崇拜者悲哀地说，"彭定康是一个流畅的电视表演者，然后珀西会在屏幕上突然出现，看起来像一只愤怒的猫头鹰。

 

Cradock’s advice was considered but the policy was not changed. From then on his tone sharpened. He began to attack Patten in the media. This was an unequal contest; as one of his admirers said sadly, ‘there was Chris Patten the smooth televisual performer and then Percy would pop up on the screen looking like an angry owl.’

 

1993年12月，他在下议院外交事务委员会上表达了他的关切，在批评者看来，他似乎是中国政府的发言人："他们觉得自己被欺骗了。

他们对此感觉非常强烈。

我并不是说他们是对的，或者他们在政治上是合理的，或者在法律上是合理的。

他说："我要说的是，这就是他们的立场。

 

In December 1993 he took his concerns to the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, appearing to his critics as if he was a spokesman for the Chinese government: ‘They feel they have been cheated. They feel extremely strongly about it. I am not saying they are right or they are politically justified or legally justified. What I am saying is that this is their position,’ he said.

 

柯利達爵士让委员会毫不怀疑让中国人承诺在香港进行'选举'是多么困难，以及香港有限的民主是多么脆弱。

中国人坚决反对，我们只是在最后一刻，在杰弗里-豪（Geoffrey Howe）亲自帮助下，在给中国外交部长吴学谦（Wu Xueqian）的信中，才把这个非常笼统的词句写进去。

他们向我们明确表示，香港任何走向威斯敏斯特式民主的举动都会被他们视为走向独立。

 

Cradock left the committee in no doubt how difficult it had been to get the Chinese to commit to ‘elections’ in Hong Kong and how fragile was its limited democracy. ‘The Chinese were adamant against it and we only managed to get that very generalised phrase in at the very last minute and with the personal help of Geoffrey Howe in a message to Wu Xueqian, the Chinese foreign minister. They made it plain to us that any move towards democracy in the Westminster style in Hong Kong would be regarded by them as moves towards independence.’

 

他警告他们，不要指望美国或其他任何人会来帮助香港。

早在1982年至1984年，英国曾有一种幸福的幻想，认为朋友和伙伴，特别是美国会把我们的栗子从火中拉出来。

但他们明确表示，他们对中国有自己的计划，他们不会用他们的资本来为我们战斗。

所以最后我们只能靠自己。

上一任总督大谈法治，'但他似乎忘记了，法治绝对取决于《联合声明》的神圣性。

我们大大加快了从大陆向香港的政治入侵。

 

He warned them not to expect the United States or anyone else to come to the aid of Hong Kong. ‘Back in 1982 to 1984 the UK used to have the happy illusion that friends and partners especially the US would pull our chestnuts out of the fire. But they made it perfectly plain that they had an agenda of their own with China and they were not going to use their capital on fighting our battles. So in the end we were on our own.’ The last governor talked a good deal about the rule of law, ‘but he seems to forget that the rule of law depends absolutely on the sanctity of the Joint Declaration. We have greatly accelerated political intrusion from the mainland into Hong Kong.’

 

由于未能为其可怕的预言赢得支持，柯利達爵士似乎在幕后进行了针对彭定康的阴谋活动。

他与现在被提升为上议院议员的Murray MacLehose取得了联系。

 

MacLehose不打算加入反对港督的阴谋，但他明确表示了自己的观点："从某一方面来说，我们确实成功了，这使得现在看到政客们拆散一个可能相当不稳定但有很大机会生存下来的结构，对香港人、英国贸易和英国仍然能够正确处理事情的声誉来说，就更加痛苦了。

 

Having failed to win support for his dire prophecies, Cradock seems to have gone behind the scenes to intrigue against Patten. He got in touch with Murray MacLehose, now elevated to the House of Lords. MacLehose was not about to join a conspiracy against the governor, but he made his opinions clear: ‘From one side or another we really pulled it off, which makes it all the more bitter now to see the politicians pulling apart a structure which may have been rather shaky but stood a good chance of surviving to the great benefit of Hong Kong people, British trade and Britain’s reputation for still being able to get things right.

 

'批评的路线是显而易见的，但如何摆脱我们自己陷入的困境似乎没有人知道。

我不认为解除彭定康的职务本身就能解决这个问题，因为香港的反应和来自北京的反击，来自那些非常善于表达的香港政客和他们的媒体支持者，他们把英国政府误入了这个泥潭。

‘The lines of criticism are obvious but how to get out of the mess we have got ourselves into no-one seems to know. I don’t think the removal of Chris Patten would solve the situation in itself because of the reaction in Hong Kong and the counter-reaction from Peking, from the very articulate Hong Kong politicians and their media supporters who have misled the British Government into this mire.’

 

柯利達爵士对撒切尔夫人感到绝望，她公开对香港不能获得独立感到遗憾，并公开支持彭定康。

他们的关系并不密切；事实上，他后来在给新加坡老政治家李光耀的私人信件中抱怨说，"她的自传非常不厚道"。

他从前工党总理卡拉汉勋爵那里得到了更多的同情，他曾私下警告彭定康说他是在浪费时间。

我完全支持你的观点，即对待一个拥有不同于我们自己文化的伟大而自豪的民族，就像你在下议院的地板上与反对派打交道一样，这是在寻求失败。

至于21世纪，我有一种强烈的感觉，中国将日益强大，将保持她的统一性（尽管有很多权力下放），并将成为世界事件中的一支真正的力量。

我们应该保持良好的关系，这一点非常重要，因为除了我们与其他国家共享的人权之外，我们将没有任何重要的利益可以将我们分开。

 

Cradock despaired of Mrs Thatcher, who openly regretted that Hong Kong could not be given independence and spoke out in support of Patten. Their relations were not close; in fact he later complained in a private letter to Lee Kuan Yew, the elder statesman of Singapore, that ‘her autobiography was very ungenerous.’ He got a more sympathetic hearing from Lord Callaghan, the former Labour prime minister, who had privately warned Patten that he was wasting his time. ‘I entirely support your belief that it is courting failure to treat a great and proud people with a culture other than our own as though you are engaged in a knockabout with the opposition across the floor of the House of Commons,’ Callaghan wrote to him. ‘As to the 21st century I have a strong feeling that China will grow in strength, will retain her unity (although with much decentralisation) and will become a real force in world events. How important that we should be on good terms, as we shall have no important interests to divide us except human rights which we share with others.’

 

但没有什么比前总理更 "前 "的了，柯利達爵士的所有游说都是徒劳的。

由于建制派对那些违反其准则的人保留了无情的态度，他发现自己被排除在其内部圈子之外，他慢慢地从人们的视线中退去。

他没有获得上议院的席位，而这可能是他应得的；虽然他仍然是为君主提供建议的枢密院成员，但没有更多的荣誉。

他利用这段时间写了一些关于中国、情报和大战略的书，发挥了他曾经不得不限制在秘密通信中的干练优雅。

他与李光耀通信，他们的信中夹杂着老人对健康的担忧和黯淡的战略预言；两人都认为中国和俄罗斯将在中国失去的北方领土问题上始终存在分歧，两人都认为西方在阿富汗陷入了一场永远无法获胜的战争，两人都对美国的不稳定感到遗憾。

他们不时安静地用餐--伦敦的日本餐厅Nobu是他们的最爱--但他们的会面越来越少了。

李是一个崇拜者。

他称《联合声明》是 "一个巡回演出，因为它涵盖了在中国不存在的概念和制度"，他认为柯利達爵士是比其他任何人都更了解中国的英国人。

 

But there is nothing so ‘former’ as a former prime minister and all Cradock’s lobbying was for nought. With the ruthlessness that the establishment reserves for those who transgress its codes, he found himself excluded from its inner circles and he slowly receded from view. He did not get the seat in the House of Lords which might have been his due; and although he remained a member of the Privy Council, which advises the sovereign, there were no more honours. He used the time to write books on China, on intelligence and on grand strategy, deploying the dry elegance he had once been obliged to confine to secret communications. He corresponded with Lee Kuan Yew, their letters interspersing old men’s health worries with gloomy strategic prognostications; both thought China and Russia would always be at odds over China’s lost northern territories, both agreed that the West was stuck in a war it could never win in Afghanistan, and both deplored the inconstancy of America. From time to time they dined quietly – the Japanese restaurant Nobu in London was a favourite – but their meetings dwindled. Lee was an admirer. He called the Joint Declaration ‘a tour de force because it covered concepts and systems that did not exist in China’ and he saw Cradock as the Englishman who knew China better than any other.

 

当柯利達爵士在经过白厅的大量编辑后出版了他关于联合情报委员会的书时，撒切尔夫人给他写了一份个人说明，表达了她自己对情报工作的独特看法："我不禁想到，必要的决定也极大地取决于负责人和他周围人的个性。

否则，它就只是一种由经验修正的数学计算。

关于使天平倾斜的确切因素，总是有一点神秘感--但那时，生活是关于比理性更重要的。

 

When Cradock published his book on the Joint Intelligence Committee, after heavy redactions by Whitehall, Mrs Thatcher wrote him a personal note which expressed her own characteristic view of intelligence: ‘I cannot help thinking that the requisite decision also depends enormously on the personality of the person in charge and those around him. Otherwise it would merely be a kind of mathematical calculation modified by experience. There is always a bit of a mystery about the precise factors that tipped the balance – but then, life is about more than reason.’

 

柯利達爵士不是一个无所事事的人；他和比尔特在马贝拉和威尼斯丽都打网球，由于没有孩子，他们可以自由旅行。

但他的健康因糖尿病而严重衰退。

2001年，他的一条腿被截肢，两年后另一条腿也被截肢。

他坚定地承受了这一切，收到了来自老同事们源源不断的同情信。

其中一封来自Len Appleyard，他是另一位曾担任驻北京大使的中国通，在Cradocks家喝完茶和吃完蛋糕的社交活动后。

 

Cradock was not an idle man; he and Birthe played tennis in Marbella and on the Venice Lido and, having no children, they were free to travel. But his health went into serious decline due to diabetes. One leg was amputated in 2001, the other two years later. He bore it all with steadfastness, receiving a stream of sympathetic letters from old colleagues. One came from Len Appleyard, another China hand who had served as ambassador to Beijing, after a social call on the Cradocks for tea and cakes:

 

在彭定康的心目中，我们显然是在同一个地狱的圈子里，永远不会被原谅......在我们的谈话之后，我再次感到与一个自欺欺人的政治家打交道是多么困难。

我定期去香港进行咨询，每次都提出我知道他在批评我的问题。

每次他都拒绝解决这些问题，然后在我离开后对我进行简报。

令人高兴的是，我认为这些年来舆论已经朝着我们的方向发展，但在彭定康的心目中，我相信我们犯了最终的罪，即阻碍了他未来的政治生涯。

 

We are clearly in the same circle of hell in Chris Patten’s mind, not ever to be forgiven … Reflecting after our conversation I was struck once more about how difficult it was to deal with a spin-doctor politician. I went down regularly to Hong Kong for consultations, each time bringing up the issues I knew he was criticising me for. Each time he refused to address them and then briefed against me after I left. Happily, I think opinion has moved in our direction over the years but in Chris Patten’s mind, I believe we committed the ultimate sin of standing in the way of his future political career.

 

柯利達爵士的最后几年是残酷的。

作为一个双腿截肢的人，他被关在家里。

从与强大的人通信开始，他后来的信件包括写给地方议会的信件，抱怨一场摇滚音乐会的噪音以及与一家养老金公司讨价还价。

然而，他也有平静的时刻，坚忍不拔的平静。

资深的中国记者乔纳森-米尔斯基（Jonathan Mirsky）是柯利達爵士路线的反对者，他目睹了天安门广场的大屠杀，他写信表示同情，随后两人之间进行了热烈的通信联系。

两人都差点在北京街头丧生，尽管他们从这次经历中得出了截然相反的结论。

 

Cradock’s last years were cruel. As a double amputee he was housebound. From corresponding with the mighty, his later letters included those addressed to the local council complaining about noise from a rock concert and haggling with a pension company. There were, however, moments of ataraxia, stoic calm. The veteran China correspondent Jonathan Mirsky, an adversary of the Cradock line who had witnessed the massacre in Tiananmen Square, wrote to express his sympathy, and a warm correspondence between the two followed. Both men had almost lost their lives on the streets of Beijing, even if they drew diametrically opposed conclusions from the experience.

 

珀西-柯利達爵士爵士于2010年1月22日去世。

撒切尔夫人给他的遗孀发了一封慰问信。

这一次她很慷慨。

 

Sir Percy Cradock died on 22 January 2010. Mrs Thatcher sent a letter of condolence to his widow. This time she was generous:

 

珀西是一个最了不起的人。

他的聪明才智和敏锐的头脑闪闪发光。

他达到清晰而有力的知识立场的能力有时可能有点令人不安，但这一点也是值得欢迎的。

 

Percy was a most remarkable man. His brilliance and sharpness of mind shone out. His ability to reach a clear and vigorous intellectual position might sometimes be a little unnerving but it was none the less welcome.

 

也许珀西最大的优点是，他比任何人都更了解中国人和他们的思维方式。

这在关于香港未来的谈判中是非常宝贵的，使我有信心推动取得比我们的基本外交立场可能取得的更好结果。

 

Perhaps Percy’s greatest strength was that more than anyone else he understood the Chinese and their way of thinking. This was invaluable during the negotiations on the future of Hong Kong and gave me the confidence to push for a better outcome than perhaps our underlying diplomatic position might otherwise have achieved.

 

讣告是有分寸的，对他的成就进行了公正的评价，但不知为何没有抓住一个既爱中国又痛恨中国的人的本质。

这一点留给了历史学家休-托马斯，他写信给《泰晤士报》，填补了空白。

 

The obituaries were measured, fairly judging his achievement but somehow failing to capture the essence of a man who both loved and rued China. That was left to the historian Hugh Thomas, who wrote to The Times to fill in the gaps:

 

我记得我和珀西一起在中国旅行，在那些荒凉的火车上，珀西是一个无与伦比的伙伴，他和他出色的妻子Birthe一起，在洛阳一家挂在河上的餐厅里，他朗诵着奥登的诗句。

 

I recall myself travelling in China with Percy, an incomparable companion on those bleak trains, with his splendid wife Birthe, and him reciting, in a restaurant hung over a river in Loyang, the lines of Auden:

 

皇帝的宠妃

The Emperor’s favourite concubine

被太监收买了。

Was in the Eunuch’s pay,

马车上的看守人把

The Wardens of the Marches turned

他们的矛头转向了另一边。

 

Their spears the other way;

花瓶破裂，女人们死去。

 

The vases crack, the ladies die,

神谕是错误的。

 

The oracles are wrong:

我们吸吮我们的拇指或睡觉；表演

We suck our thumbs or sleep; the show

赌性太大，时间太长

Is gamey and too long